In what is considered a big shift in Pennsylvania, the highly esteemed Monmouth University poll has shifted 3 points — with President Trump now slightly favored in the important swing state. This comes as only days remain before polls close on Election night!
According to a writeup on Monmouth’s website, Kamala and President Trump are basically tied in PA for electoral votes — even though President Trump resonates with Pennsylvania voters’ values more than with those of Kamala.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are basically tied in the race for Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This result comes even though Trump is seen as being more in line than Harris with the Keystone State’s political views. Harris does best among high-propensity voters, while Trump’s path to victory relies on turning out enough low-propensity voters.
Overall, just under half of registered voters in Pennsylvania say they will either definitely or have already voted for Harris (42%) or will probably vote for her (5%). In a separate question, an identical number will either definitely or have already voted for Trump (42%) or will probably vote for him (5%). Trump continues to have a significant advantage among white voters without a college degree – who make up nearly half of Pennsylvania’s voter pool – garnering 60% support from this group to 35% for Harris. Harris holds the edge among white college graduates (58% to 37% for Trump) and voters who are Black, Hispanic, and of other races (62% to 25%).
This shift is great news for the Trump campaign with only a few days left before Election Day, considering that the final “official” tally in the 2020 Presidential election had Biden with 50.01% of the PA popular vote, and President Trump with 48.84% — giving Biden the total of PA’s electoral votes in 2020.
According to Interactive Polls on X, Quinnipiac also revised their polling numbers today, giving President Trump a +2 point bump to sit a full 2 points ahead in a head-to-head matchup between him and Kamala Harris. And even with third-party candidates in the mix, the Quinnipiac poll still has President Trump sitting a full percentage point over Kamala for the state’s Electoral votes.
With less than a week to go, President Trump still holds a 25-point lead among some PA demographics according to a report in The Hill, while Kamala holds the majority of the state’s minority demographics.
Trump holds a 25-point lead over the vice president among white voters without a college degree — 60 percent to 35 percent. Among white college graduates, The Democratic nominee is ahead of her GOP rival, 58 percent to 37 percent.
Among Black, Hispanic and other voters of various races, Harris has the advantage — garnering 62 percent to Trump’s 25 percent, according to the survey.
The polling comes as Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate, and Harris are campaigning in the crucial swing state, giving their final pitch to voters as early voting winds down.
New Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania has the race TIED.
Their last poll of the 2020 election had Joe Biden leading Trump by SEVEN points.
Fox News is reporting on the new numbers, pointing out that the shift in the Monmouth poll represents a possible break in the “Blue Wall” of PA, MI, and Wi.
With 19 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is the largest of the seven key battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided President Biden’s 2020 election victory over Trump and which will likely determine who wins the 2024 presidential election.
With six days to go until Election Day, the new surveys follows other recent polls that point to an incredibly close contest in the Keystone State. A CBS News poll conducted Oct. 22-28 pointed to both major party candidates deadlocked at 49%.
Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, are the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”
Democrats reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election over Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats’ column and defeat Trump.
Both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, as well as their running mates, have made repeated stops in the three states this summer and autumn.
According to the 538’s Pollster Ratings, the Monmouth University Poll holds the 5th place spot of all analyzed polls, with a 9.9 transparency score.
With only days to go, and 19 electoral votes up for grabs, this will be sure to increase the intensity of campaigning in the swing state of Pennsylvania right up to the close of voting locations on Election Day.
I don’t suspect that Kamala’s campaign anticipated the fight that is ensuing across the landscape of battleground states, much less that President Trump would be FAVORED only days before Election day. The fact that he is known to overperform his poll numbers must be weighing heavy at the moment on those responsible for calling the shots in Kamala Harris’ camp.
Leave a Comment