The 2024 presidential election so far has been nothing short of a political circus, with plot twists, unexpected candidates, and, of course, the ever-present drama between Trump and the Democrats. But the latest act in this saga?
Kamala Harris is underperforming in the polls, and it’s not looking good for the Democratic Party. For someone who rode the initial wave of excitement as the first female and Black vice president, Harris is now staring down the barrel of some pretty horrifying polling numbers.
While Democrats typically dominate the popular vote thanks to welfare state expansion and open-border policies, they have never managed to keep a consistent hold on the Electoral College. This is where Republicans, particularly Trump, have thrived. In 2016, Trump shocked the world by losing the popular vote but winning the presidency thanks to key victories in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It wasn’t a fluke—he knew exactly where to focus.
Fast forward to 2024, and we’ve got Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. For a while, she enjoyed the limelight of being the “fresh face” of the Democratic Party. But recent numbers show she’s not exactly inspiring confidence—and that’s putting it lightly.
A Rough Polling Picture for Harris
Let’s dive into the numbers because, as always, they tell the real story. Kamala Harris is facing an uphill battle, especially in the battleground states that will decide this election. In 2020, Joe Biden led Trump in key states by several points. Now, with Harris as the Democratic nominee, that lead has completely vanished. In fact, Trump is now leading her in all seven battleground states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Let’s not forget, at this point in 2020, Biden was ahead by five points in the same states.
From The Hill:
The battleground states, however, are where the real story lies. RealClearPolitics’s Oct. 13 top battleground polling average has Trump leading Harris very narrowly, 48.3 percent to 47.9 percent. At this point in 2020, Biden led in this average by 5 points.
Even more telling is that Harris isn’t just underperforming Biden—she’s underperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 effort. Yes, Hillary. And we all know how that turned out. Harris is polling worse than Clinton in six out of seven battleground states, a truly alarming statistic for any Democrat hoping to cling to the White House. If the Harris campaign wasn’t already sweating, these latest figures are surely turning up the heat.
From The Hill:
Trump leads (albeit narrowly) in all seven battleground states, having taken a negligible one-tenth of a point lead in Wisconsin in recent days. In contrast, Biden led in all seven of these states at this point in 2020 — in some cases by several points. And not only is Harris underperforming Biden, she is also underperforming Clinton’s losing 2016 effort in six of the seven (all except Georgia).
The Harris Campaign Is Crumbling
It’s not hard to see why Harris is struggling to gain traction. For one, her tenure as vice president has been rocky, to say the least. From her disastrous handling of the southern border to her failure to deliver on the Democratic Party’s promises for healthcare and infrastructure, it’s clear she lacks the leadership qualities needed to win over voters. She’s tried to rely on identity politics—playing up her race and gender to appeal to specific voter groups—but even that is falling flat.
Meanwhile, Trump is tapping into the same winning formula he used in 2016. He’s focusing on the issues that matter most to middle America: jobs, crime, and national security. And he’s doing it with a populist flair that resonates with everyday voters, something Harris has never been able to pull off.
The Democrats are learning the hard way that just being “the first” something doesn’t guarantee a win. Voters want substance, not symbolic victories. And Harris’ inability to connect with male voters, working-class voters, and even minority voters is coming back to bite her.
All this has former RNC Chair Reince Priebus making a bold statement:
Trump’s Advantage Grows
What’s truly fascinating is how the Democrats, after spending years criticizing Trump, can’t seem to find anyone who can beat him. Kamala Harris was supposed to be the answer, the fresh face that could rally the base and bring in new voters. Instead, she’s sinking faster than Biden did in his later years.
Trump, on the other hand, is gaining momentum. He’s leading Harris in all the key battleground states, and the polls show that voters are tired of the Democrats’ failures. Whether it’s the economy, inflation, or national security, Trump is hitting all the right notes. And while Harris is busy trying to avoid the tough questions, Trump is out there connecting with voters and reminding them of what they liked about his presidency.
With just a few weeks left until the election, Harris is running out of time to turn things around. The question now isn’t whether Trump can win—it’s how big his margin of victory will be.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a repeat of 2016, with Trump poised to win the Electoral College while Democrats scramble to explain how they managed to blow it again. Harris may have the media on her side, but she’s losing where it counts: in the hearts and minds of American voters.
Key Takeaways:
- Harris Is Underperforming: Harris is trailing Trump in all seven battleground states, a stark contrast to Biden’s lead at this point in 2020.
- Worse Than Hillary: Harris is polling worse than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in six out of seven battleground states, signaling trouble for her campaign.
- Trump’s Momentum: Trump is gaining momentum as Harris continues to struggle, with polls showing him leading narrowly in key states.
In 2016 he lost by 3 million votes
In 2020 he lost by 6 million votes
In 2024, you are suggesting he wins “BIG”
He will lose California, he will lose his home state of New York, his adopted state is a toss up
How do you define BIG? Or are you just telling people their vote isn’t needed, so why bother?